There are few clearer signs that the
recession is over than rising employment.
Clearly, that's precisely where we are.
For the month of March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report that 162,000 jobs were created
in March.
This is the best result since March
2007. TIME TO CELEBRATE.
But, as always when good news comes out,
the bloody naysayers, pessimists, and perennial bears come out with some
claptrap to suggest that this isn't as good as it seems.
One hugely positive report was the number
of temporary workers hired by the 2010 census.
Some of the naysayers suggest that the extra 48,000 temp workers hired
to get surveys filled in shouldn't count because they aren't contributing
anything to the economy and are only temporary.
Not like newsletter writers or the other 313,000 temporary help workers
hired since September. Besides, this is
government employment. Of the entire
public service (17% of all employed), these census workers are probably the
most productive.
Then there's the population gain. The population is growing at a rate of 0.997%
per year, or around 250,000 a month, implying an extra 62,500 more service
providers are required each month (based on a ratio of 1 in four -- a rather
conservative estimate given that the current ratio is 1 in 3.4).
Sure enough, health care and social
assistance alone added on 36,700 new jobs in the month.
"And don't forget the weather!"
yell the pundits. Sure, global warming
took a holiday in February, which meant fewer jobs as construction and other
outdoor work to the tune of around 100,000 according to Whitehouse
estimates.
So, three temporary effects added 210,500
new jobs. But apart from that, the
162,000 jobs number is pretty rosy right?
Except for U6 unemployment -- the widest
measure of unemployment -- rising to 16.9% from 16.8% in February and 16.5% in
January.
Oh, and the 414,000 increase in long term
unemployed (27+ weeks).
And irrelevantly, average hourly earnings
of all employees fell by 0.1%.
But at least at 9.7%, the US is still in
single figures in terms of headline unemployed and there's no sign of an
uptick. At least on the official U3
headline number!
Cheers,
Peter.
